Kamiar Khayambashi

Kamiar Khayambashi

PhD researcher applying machine learning and quantitative modeling to reliability, risk analysis, and critical infrastructure systems.

Interactions Between Data Center Load Growth, Residential Heat Pump Adoption, and Energy Affordability

Published in Joule (Under Review), 2025

This study quantifies the system-level interaction between accelerating data center (IDC) electricity demand and residential heat pump (HP) adoption in Virginia’s PJM Dominion (PJMD) region through 2040.

Using a high-resolution capacity expansion framework (Temoa), we model four coupled trajectories combining:

  • High vs. Low data center growth
  • Business-as-usual (BAU) vs. accelerated heat pump adoption (up to 90% penetration)

Unlike prior work that evaluates industrial load growth or electrification separately, this analysis captures long-term investment, dispatch, seasonal load shapes, and marginal system costs within a unified optimization framework.

Key findings include:

  • Accelerated heat pump adoption reduces modeled residential energy expenditures by approximately $200–350M annually by 2040 (7–12%), despite rapid data center expansion.
  • Building-sector natural gas consumption declines by roughly 57%, shifting ~15 TWh of heating demand to electricity.
  • Only 2–3 GW of incremental generation capacity is required under high electrification.
  • Per-MWh system marginal costs remain stable, as winter heat pump demand improves utilization of infrastructure sized for summer-peaking data centers.

Seasonal complementarity between summer-peaking data center cooling loads and winter-peaking heat pump demand increases subtransmission utilization without requiring duplicate capacity buildout.

A net present value framework further evaluates public-program and private-participant perspectives, showing strong positive net benefits at moderate incentive cost shares.

The results challenge narratives that data center growth necessarily increases ratepayer burden and instead identify building electrification as an economically efficient complement to industrial load expansion.

Recommended citation: Khayambashi, K., Kaufman, M., DeCarolis, J., Shobe, W., Wade, C., McCollum, D., Alemazkoor, N., & Clarens, A. F. (2025). Interactions Between Data Center Load Growth, Residential Heat Pump Adoption, and Energy Affordability. Joule (Under Review).
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